Re: Yellow X to east of Florida as of Sunday at 1716
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/7/2014, 2:24 pm
They did get rid of that unfortunately. I liked that too.
"3) Elimination of the Intensity Probability Table
The Wind Speed Probability text product included a table showing the likelihood that a tropical cyclone would be at any of several different intensity categories (e.g., depression, storm, category 1 hurricane, etc.) at fixed points in time (e.g., 12 hours, 24 hours, etc.). This table was originally intended to help users assess the risk of different storm intensities at particular times. However, NHC has learned that many users consult this table to estimate the chances that a tropical cyclone will make landfall at one or more of the various intensity categories. Unfortunately, the current methodology provides a highly misleading estimate of landfall intensity. Because of the likelihood of misuse for land-threatening storms, NHC is discontinuing this table until a better procedure to estimate intensity risk can be developed.
To understand the problem, consider a storm that is forecast to be just off the coast at 72 hours. The probability that the cyclone will be at any particular intensity category at 72 hours is estimated by creating a large number of potential track and intensity scenarios, based on the latest official forecast and a climatological error distribution. If the 72-hour forecast is for the storm to be very close to land, a sizable fraction of the potential scenarios will have already encountered land by that time. For these scenarios, the expected 72-hour intensity will be much lower than what would be expected for a storm that had not yet made landfall. So even though the table accurately assesses what the intensity is likely to be at 72 hours, it grossly underestimates the likely intensity for the moment when the storm comes ashore."
From:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140320_pa_2014seasonChanges.pdf
The disturbance has now been removed off the NHC's front page. Normally I would like to check when it was removed. Was it at 2pm, 8am? You can't easily check now. |
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