A slight westward shift of the models in latest run (0Z on July 29th)
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/28/2014, 9:27 pm
A lot of the models have it clipping the northern Lesser Antilles, possibly as a hurricane. Beyond that, out over 5 days, it is still unclear. An average of the GFS ensemble (AEMN) has it going east of the Bahamas and then possibly starting to re-curve, but there is a wide spread between the individual ensemble members (AP01 - AP20), from whether it re-curves, and where, to if it does re-curve at all. Meanwhile, the invest continues to improve.

Track model forecast:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=93&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

Wind speed model forecast:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=93&latestinvest=1&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1
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2am on July 28th: Invest 93L - 70% chance through 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 7/28/2014, 3:14 am
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