An irresponsible forecast from someone a meteorologist in South Florida
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/28/2014, 9:57 pm
I saw this posted on another site about the chief meteorologist at NBC6 posting that the storm is "not a threat" to Florida. Considering an averaging of the models available out 8.5 days show the center of the storm coming within about 310 miles of Florida at its closest point, I think this was very irresponsible. (And only GFS members are made up in this calculation, no input from other models, so that really makes the forecast even more really unclear that far out.)

The NHC themselves have an accuracy of 226nm (260 miles) out 5 days over the past 5 years. (And an important note, 33% of the time over that period the error is greater than 226nm out 120 hours. That is something people really like to forget when they look at the cone of error the NHC puts out.) And a meteorologist thinks this storm is not a threat when we are taking about raw model data, from one model ensemble basically, out well beyond that? This guy is a lot worse than the PNJ guy people posted about previously.


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2am on July 28th: Invest 93L - 70% chance through 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 7/28/2014, 3:14 am
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