Re: In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Haw
Posted by
tvsteve on 8/4/2014, 9:49 pm
I see according to the SHIPS forecast that Iselle is expected to weaken, but hurricane force winds hitting the islands is not impossible. Although the likelihood of it happening is low, the latest (2100 UTC Mon Aug 4) wind speed probabilities from the NHC has Hilo at a 3% chance, Kahului at a 2% chance, and Honolulu at a 1 % chance.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP4+shtml/042105.shtml
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042105 PWSEP4
HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 27(43) 1(44) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) X(36) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) X(40) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 2(34) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 3(32) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 6(23) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
$$ FORECASTER BERG |
142
In this thread:
In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii -
Chris in Tampa,
8/3/2014, 10:59 am- Re: In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii - DTB_2009, 8/6/2014, 9:43 pm
- Re: In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii - hanna, 8/6/2014, 9:11 pm
- Hurricane Warnings Issued for Hawaii at 2100 UTC wed Aug 6 - tvsteve, 8/6/2014, 6:03 pm
- Re: In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii - ssherripat, 8/5/2014, 8:35 pm
- NOAA G-IV's positioning earlier for Iselle, traveling from Tampa to Hawaii - Chris in Tampa, 8/4/2014, 9:47 pm
- Re: In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii - justloafing, 8/4/2014, 2:06 pm
- Re: In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii - Fred, 8/4/2014, 12:39 pm
- 140 MPH Cat 4 Iselle - LawKat, 8/4/2014, 12:34 pm
- Special 2am EDT Advisory on Monday: Major Hurricane Again - Chris in Tampa, 8/4/2014, 2:31 am
- NHC Discussion - Chris in Tampa, 8/3/2014, 11:38 pm
- Re: In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii - Shalista, 8/3/2014, 12:06 pm
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