Re: In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Haw
Posted by tvsteve on 8/4/2014, 9:49 pm
I see according to the SHIPS forecast that Iselle is expected to weaken, but hurricane force winds hitting the islands is not impossible. Although the likelihood of it happening is low, the latest (2100 UTC Mon Aug 4) wind speed probabilities from the NHC has Hilo at a 3% chance, Kahului at a 2% chance, and Honolulu at a 1 % chance.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP4+shtml/042105.shtml

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 042105
PWSEP4

HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014              
2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                      

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
  PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
  HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME    

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    
  ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
  ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
  ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              
   OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
       AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              
  (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          
       18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


 - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

              FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
 TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
            06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                  

15N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  27(43)   1(44)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  27(36)   X(36)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  32(40)   X(40)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
KAILUA-KONA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  28(32)   2(34)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)
KAHULUI        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   2(35)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)
LANAI CITY     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   3(32)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
KAUNAKAKAI     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   3(28)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)
HONOLULU       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   6(23)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   9(23)
NIIHAU         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                    
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In the East Pacific: Iselle is now a major hurricane; forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii - Chris in Tampa, 8/3/2014, 10:59 am
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