40% chance in 5 days since 2pm
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/10/2014, 7:52 pm
Where it develops usually makes a lot of difference for sure.

I did notice with the BAM models though that they are rather tightly together. And at least at the moment, the deep version is not even the furthest north:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=94&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1&models=BAMS,BAMM,BAMD

It seems to indicate that whether shallow or deep, weak or strong, it is likely to end up traveling mostly westward through the next week. It's so far out though, very early.

But if you notice the NHC's potential formation area in the 5 day outlook, it too is very much westward across the Atlantic.
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20% chance of development from wave just off Africa within 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 8/10/2014, 4:31 am
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