NHC is highlighting two areas with a 20% chance within 5 days as of 2am on Tuesday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/19/2014, 2:20 am
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is limited.  Although development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days, some slow development is possible by
the end of the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles
and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next several days while it moves to the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/catl.html

The global models could start getting confused over which, if any, or both, could develop.



Meanwhile, in the East Pacific, named storm number 12 has formed, one month ahead of schedule. (On average the twelfth storm is Sep. 19th.) The average is 15 for the year and it might be around the peak of their season. (I don't see an exact date, but the climatology page has a chart that seems to indicate the peak is earlier than the Atlantic.) But, we're already at 12.
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Disturbance south of Cape Verde - Jake, 8/13/2014, 6:05 pm
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