Re: Model assumptions
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/22/2014, 7:53 pm
I just think a lot of the models are still not getting a good handle on things. The HWRF has actually been extremely bullish on development, but then again it likes to do that historically sometimes with things that have yet to develop. (not that it will won't end up doing that of course, it is always a possibility) I think the problem is the models don't know where to start it. I was taking a look at the HWRF model as released as part of the NHC models at 18Z, meaning the 12Z HWRF model run. It didn't provide anything beyond hour 1. However, looking graphically on another site it did have it developing still, just from another center eventually and then deepening. It would appear at the moment, that the center might be at/near the NE coast of the Dominican Republic. If that is it, we'll have to see how it progresses this evening. The whole system is very elongated. Maybe that is the way it may eventually go to, but I just don't really think much of the models still.

Steering:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time

I think it is simply too close to determine what it might do until we do see, more reliably, a center. Maybe we are seeing that now. But if the center hangs further south, or redevelops further south in the near term, it just might miss the gap. Even the islands themselves may have an impact on where the center ultimately forms. But since the storm has been more westward, in my opinion, of the models, I think the steering remains too confusing until we see some more pronounced movement, more northward, from a more reliably track-able center.

Satellite:
http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=12&width=600&height=600&info=ir&zoom=1&palette=ir2.pal&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=20&lon=-70.4
175
In this thread:
Model assumptions - LawKat, 8/22/2014, 1:59 pm
  • Re: Model assumptions - jimw, 8/22/2014, 2:31 pm
    • Re: Model assumptions - Chris in Tampa, 8/22/2014, 7:53 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.