Disturbance 96L Analysis
Posted by Jake on 8/23/2014, 10:54 am
The developing core had a major disruption overnight as it encountered the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Last evening, strong convection began to fire across the eastern portion of Hispaniola, with a tighter banding structure, which leads me to believe, had this been further north we would be talking tropical storm and not an open disturbance/weak low.

Although the current upper air conditions are not excellent, they're conducive for gradual strengthening. Once the center pulls away from the Island, think continued organization will occur, as conditions are forecast to become quite conducive for possible quick development. However, we're still in the process of closing out a LLC which will likely form close to the SE Bahamas later this afternoon or tonight.

Upper air pattern has improved with an overall expansion of the outflow pattern, with some restriction on the western portion. Water vapor and upper air data, shows an ULL west of the system causing SSW vertical shear, however the ULL is pushing west an this will decrease the shear while the upper high expands west. This will allow soon to be Cristobal to intensify in the Bahamas under light vertical shear, high OHC and possible outflow channels which would lead to steady deepening.

The current position of the mid latitude trough's right front quadrant has bypassed the sallow/mid level core of the storm, this leads me to believe the a more WNW/NW track across the Bahamas is becoming likely. In addition, the retrograding aforementioned ULL west of the system and building ridge to the north will also help pull the system more west increasing a weakness towards Florida and possibly towards the Carolinas. Eastern Gulf to Carolinas should closely monitor; especially with the oceanic heat content east of Florida....
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Disturbance 96L Analysis - Jake, 8/23/2014, 10:54 am
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