Chances now 20% in 48 hours / 30% within 5 days as of 8pm on Wednesday
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/10/2014, 9:41 pm
Although longer term for 92L east of Florida, they say "the environment is forecast to become
unfavorable for significant development". That might just be in the 5 day period though.
Near term chances on 91L in the East Atlantic are bumped up too.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated
with a broad area of low pressure centered about 650 miles west of
the Cape Verde Islands has increased and become a little better
organized this evening. This system is now moving toward an area
more favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two while the low moves toward the
west-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. A weak area of low pressure has formed near the northwestern
Bahamas, and its associated shower activity is showing some signs of
organization. However, the environment is forecast to become
unfavorable for significant development while the low moves slowly
westward toward southern Florida. If necessary, an Air Force plane
will investigate this system tomorrow. Regardless of development,
this low will bring heavy rains over portions of southern Florida
and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Forecaster Avila"
NHC has 92L as a trough (Graphical Products Legend) on the 72 hour surface forecast:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/
(although at the moment, that is as of 3:30pm Wed.)
Some Models for 92L:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=92&latestinvest=1 |
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