11pm on Thursday: Edouard has formed from T.D. Six; No threat to land through 5 days
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/11/2014, 10:55 pm
Most all the models still have it east of Bermuda and well away from Canada. Although some of
the GFS ensemble members are all over the place, from a couple further west, one still well
offshore from Canada and a few each pointing at the Azores and Europe.
NHC is confident of the northern turn though "since that is the solution of most of the track
guidance".
NASA's Global Hawk drone is on the way to investigate on a research mission dropping 65
dropsondes.
A. THE GLOBAL HAWK NASA 872 WILL INVEST THE ATLANTIC
TROPICAL WAVE 91L. TAKEOFF TIME FROM KWAL 11/2200Z.
SONDES 65. 55,000 TO 62,000 FT. LAWNMOWER PATTERN
IN REGION BOUNDED BY:
A. 22.0N 45.0W
B. 13.5N 45.0W
C. 13.5N 36.5W
D. 22.0N 36.5W
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/
NASA HS3 mission: https://espo.nasa.gov/missions/hs3
5 day track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023349.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/06L_floater.html
Models:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=06&display=googlemap&latestrun=1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014
Tropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Edouard, the fifth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane
season. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on satellite
estimates of T2.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB, SAB and UW CIMSS.
The cloud pattern is now more symmetric with the low-level center
embedded within the deep convection. The upper-level outflow is good
in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.
Although the atmospheric environment--including increasing wind
shear--is not ideal for strengthening, Edouard will be moving over a
pool of anomalous warm waters in the north central Atlantic during
the next few days. This will likely aid the intensification process,
and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time.
The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON.
Edouard is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11
knots. The subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone
on that general track is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a
large mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. This new pattern
should force Edouard to turn northward by the end of the forecast
period, and eventually to recurve over the open Atlantic. There is
confidence in the northward turn since that is the solution of most
of the track guidance. The NHC forecast follows very close the
multi-model consensus TVCA and an average of the GFS and the
ECMWF models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 17.3N 39.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 18.1N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 19.0N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 20.3N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 21.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 24.0N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 27.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
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11pm on Thursday: Edouard has formed from T.D. Six; No threat to land through 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 9/11/2014, 10:55 pm Post A Reply
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