| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/084115.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents It really blew up overnight, whether the inner core is perfectly aligned at the moment or not. Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15E/15E_floater.html HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 The satellite presentation of Odile has changed quickly during the past few hours, and the convective pattern now consists of a CDO pattern with the center underneath the convective canopy. Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 06Z, and on this basis Odile is upgraded to a hurricane for this advisory. Given that the shear has decreased and the cyclone is situated over SSTs of around 29C, conditions are favorable for at least steady intensification. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates a 57 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. However, most of the intensity guidance is less aggressive. Also, a TRMM pass around 04Z suggested that the low-level center was displaced a little to the west of the mid-level center, suggesting that the inner core of Odile may not be aligned. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward in the short term to account for the observed intensification, but still shows a peak at 90 kt in 48 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance and is close to the SHIPS model and the FSU Superensemble. The initial motion estimate is 315/04. Odile should accelerate northwestward today as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However, significant spread develops in the model guidance after 24 hours, with the latest ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL solutions show a track farther to the right, closer to or over portions of Baja California. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and HWRF are on the left side of the guidance envelope with a track well west of Baja California. These differences appear to be due to variability in the western extent of the subtropical ridge north of Odile and how fast a mid-latitude trough approaches the U.S. West Coast late in the period. The ECMWF model has shifted sharply to the right this cycle, with a more progressive trough turning Odile toward the north-northwest late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one through 48 hours, and is a little to the right of the previous track after that time, close to the TVCE consensus and the FSU Superensemble. Given the spread in the guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast, including the potential threat to Baja California, is below normal. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. Additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for portions of Baja California later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.4N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 16.8N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 21.3N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 23.8N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 26.0N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 ...ODILE NOW A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 105.6W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE...SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |