| Also, like Norbert, this could also in part cause life threatening flash flooding in the SW United States early in the week. Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/055637.shtml?5day?large#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15E/15E_floater.html HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 ...ODILE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO MULEGE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH... 195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ODILE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN Earlier discussion: HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that Odile is undergoing rapid intensification. Satellite intensity estimates at 00Z were 90 kt, which is an increase of 35 kt during the last 24 hours. Since then, an eye has become apparent in infrared imagery with cloud tops colder than -80C in the western eyewall. The initial intensity is increased to 95 kt...and this could be conservative. The hurricane has turned to the right and accelerated during the past several hours. The initial motion is 335/10, and the motion over the past 4-5 hours is just west of due north. Odile should turn back toward the northwest during the next several hours as it is steered between a strengthening ridge over the southern United States and a mid-level low or trough west of the Baja California peninsula. The combination of the initial position and motion has lead to a significant northeastward shift in the track model guidance, which now calls for the center of Odile to pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from 36-96 hours. Based on this, the new forecast track is shifted 30-50 n mi to the northeast for the entire forecast period, and it lies just west of Baja California. The new forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope and is in good agreement with the TVCE consensus model and the Florida State Superensemble. Further northeastward adjustments of the track may be necessary if Odile's northwestward turn occurs later than currently forecast. Rapid intensification is expected to continue until either the hurricane undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle or moves over the wake of cold water left by Hurricane Norbert. The latter is likely to occur in about 18 hours. The forecast peak intensity has been increased to 110 kt at the upper edge of the guidance envelope, and it is possible Odile could get stronger than that. After 18 hours or so, the center should move over cooler water, with land interaction expected after about 36 hours. This should lead to a steady weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast track requires major changes for the warnings and watches for Mexico, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the southern end of the Baja California peninsula. If Odile strikes Baja California as a major hurricane, it will be only the fourth time since since 1967 that such a hurricane has hit the peninsula. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.9N 106.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.4N 109.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 23.2N 111.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 24.6N 112.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 29.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |