| HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 ...ODILE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.3W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO PUNTA EUGENIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREJOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO SANTA ROSALIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO MULEGE. * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO SANTA ROSALIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |