Still developing it, but less consistent on where
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/7/2014, 1:33 am
Here is how the last four runs have gone with the GFS... from earlier to latest run... from right turn, left turn, to kind of a u-turn:

Florida, Texas, Mexico (Yucatan and BOC), Mexico (Yucatan and BOC)

I like that trend, but it is rather meaningless still. It could be back my way at any time. Earlier runs it didn't get steered by high pressure it seems. Later runs, it seems to be. (clockwise around the high, so left turn)

I guess we'll just have to start watching the convection down there for organization:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/watl.html

I'm really not sure how accurate this product ever is and I have not even checked it much this year, but here is the 48hr formation probability:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

And then this chart too from that page:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_CUMP.gif

Highest formation probability we have seen all season from the Carib.
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The GFS is still at it - Chris in Tampa, 10/5/2014, 9:46 pm
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