Now Subtropical Storm Fay
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/10/2014, 5:42 pm
SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 64.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA BY SATURDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART








SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the subtropical cyclone has become a little
better organized since the previous advisory. Deep convection has
gradually been developing closer to the low-level circulation
center, and a maximum SFMR surface wind measured thus far by the
aircraft has been 35 kt. Based on this information, plus a
subtropical satellite classification of ST2.5/35 kt from TAFB, this
system has been upgraded to Subtropical Storm Fay. The Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will continue investigating Fay for the next hour
or so.

The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Fay is expected to move
steadily northwestward and then northward around the western
periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located along 29N-30N
latitude for the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, the cyclone is expected
to recurve toward the northeast and accelerate when it becomes
embedded in the strong mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough that is currently located near the U.S. east coast.
The latest NHC model guidance has shifted somewhat to the west,
especially the ECMWF model, but the models remain tightly clustered
and in good agreement on the aforementioned track scenario,
including absorption by a frontal system by 72 hours. The official
track has been shifted to the left of the previous forecast and lies
just to the west of and a little slower than the consensus track
model TVCN.

The large size of Fay, along with strong southeasterly to southerly
vertical wind shear, should inhibit much in the way of
intensification, despite the cyclone being over anomalously warm 29C
sea-surface temperatures. If the recent trend in the development of
inner-core convection continues, then Fay could transition into a
tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours or so. However, this
transition would have virtually no effect on the size of the
tropical-storm-force wind field. The NHC intensity forecast closely
follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 24.7N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 28.5N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  12/0600Z 31.7N  63.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  12/1800Z 33.7N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart
88
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Invest 99L has become Subtropical Depression Seven; TS watch issued in Bermuda - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2014, 10:52 am
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