Tropical Storm Ana forms ESE of Hawaiian Islands; Forecast to become a hurricane
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/13/2014, 11:01 pm
Track and other info:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_w.php?stormid=CP022014
It's too early to know what impact it might have on the islands, but the last storm showed earlier this year that the Big Island does not do well with strong storms. The models are more spread out later in the forecast period:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=cp&year=2014&storm=02&display=googlemap&latestrun=1
So there is still uncertainty, but the islands need to pay close attention.
"WTPA45 PHFO 132036
TCDCP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST MON OCT 13 2014
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO DEEM THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 1537Z
SSM/S AND 1359Z TRMM OVERPASSES DETECTED CURVED BANDS THAT SUPPORT
INITIATING ADVISORIES...AS DO DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
2.0/30 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB. THUS THE SECOND CYCLONE OF THE 2014
SEASON HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO-C. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE NAMED
ANA.
INITIAL MOTION IS 295/09 KT...WITH THE CYCLONE BEING STEERED BY A
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A WESTWARD-MOVING CLOSED LOW ALOFT
NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY WEST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3 WHILE ALSO RESULTING
IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH ALOFT PASSES BY
TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY 3. GUIDANCE
SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON
THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN CONSENSUS
AT THAT TIME.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH SHEAR LIGHT AND WATER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY
WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...
AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...MAKING THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE BY DAY 2...AND MAINTAINING IT AS A HURRICANE THROUGH DAY
5.
INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 12.8N 143.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 13.2N 143.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 144.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 14.0N 145.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 14.1N 146.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 14.6N 149.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.5N 152.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 18.5N 154.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD" |
157
In this thread:
Tropical Storm Ana forms ESE of Hawaiian Islands; Forecast to become a hurricane - Chris in Tampa, 10/13/2014, 11:01 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.