Hilda rapidly intensifying in the East Pacific
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/7/2015, 9:51 pm
It's a very small storm, so it can strengthen quickly, and is. (NHC will be a lot higher for the 8pm PDT advisory on Friday) It's still too early to tell if this one will impact Hawaii. One good thing about how small it is at the moment, and if it stayed that way, would be that it could come rather close and the higher winds, and even a lot of the rain, could be offshore even if it did end up coming closer than the last storm. However, it should weaken dramatically before potentially being near the Hawaiian islands. Recon is scheduled to begin, if needed, late Sunday night. (It's unfortunate that they brought back the NOAA G-IV jet from Hawaii back to Tampa, they should have stayed for Hilda. Would have been terrible to have to stay in Hawaii for an extra week or two, but I'm sure they would have suffered through it somehow.)
One thing to note is that this storm has not yet been handled well by the models. At least to some extent. Six hours ago the storm was not forecast, expect by two models, too reach the intensity it just got to six hours later, which is still likely conservative. Plus, I don't know how well models do with a small storm like this. It can strengthen and weaken quickly.
The best track data at 8pm EDT, 5pm PDT, was at 90 knots. NHC had the advisory at 2pm PDT at 70 knots, forecast to peak at 85 knots in 36 hours. (Instead, three hours later they had the actual intensity, for best track data, at 90 knots.)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HILDA
Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10E/10E_floater.html
Wider view:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/cpac.html
Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/ |
105
In this thread:
Hilda rapidly intensifying in the East Pacific - Chris in Tampa, 8/7/2015, 9:51 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.