2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary
Posted by
Shalista on 8/8/2015, 10:15 am
Released on 6 Aug
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
"The outlook calls for a 90% chance of a below-normal season and a 10% chance of a near-normal season, with no realistic expectation that the season will be above-normal. This 90% probability of a below-normal season is the highest given by NOAA for any such season since their seasonal hurricane outlooks began in August 1998.
Atmospheric conditions that are exceptionally non-conducive to tropical storm and hurricane formation are now present in response to El Niño. These conditions, which include strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion, are predicted to continue through the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season across the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region and SST's are below normal across the basin.
For the remainder of the season, this updated outlook calls for a 70% probability of 3-7 named storms, of which 1-4 are expected to become hurricanes and 0-1 are expected to become major hurricanes."
Well....I'm not sure what to make of this, but they have been wrong before. Time to sit back, relax and do the wait and see attitude at this moment and watch the Atlantic basin for any signs of activity. |
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