Re: Next Up, Erika!
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/25/2015, 12:48 am
I think actual data really helps. Out in the middle of nowhere there are few obs. Some surface obs, a ship or buoy, but only occasionally. No land stations. No recon. No weather balloons. You can't verify the data as easily. Satellites do good, but I think actual data is what usually helps with the models. It's early with this storm yet though. The models are crazy a lot of times when something is early on. Kilo should be a category 5 hurricane near Hawaii now if you listened to some of the models, but now it is a depression and heading westward. (that was one of the biggest mistakes I have seen with the models) The GFDL and HWRF love to go nuts on these earlier runs sometimes.
Actually they are rather tame at the moment (compared to some of the shenanigans these models sometimes pull with intensity early on):
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=05&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1
There will be lots of recon tomorrow. (Air Force and NOAA research missions, with both P-3 and G-IV) Data! Data! Data!
I want to see how much latitude this storm gains. Danny never did climb much in the end and this storm has been loving west all the way across:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=05
Steering:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time
Central Lesser Antilles should be on the look out too. |
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Chris in Tampa,
8/24/2015, 10:40 pm Post A Reply
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