and WU Blog post by Jeff Masters
Posted by cypresstx on 8/26/2015, 1:59 pm
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3089

...it is quite possible that the increasing shear and interaction with the high terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will cause Erika to dissipate, as predicted by the Wednesday morning runs of the GFS model. If Erika survives into Friday afternoon, the potential for a dangerous storm that will affect the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast increases substantially.


Figure 3. The 00Z Wednesday (8 pm EDT Tuesday) runs of the European and GFS models had two very different predictions of the intensity of Erika for 5 pm Sunday August 30, 2015. The European model showed Erika as a strong tropical storm just off the coast of Florida (purple colors = winds of at least 58 mph), while the GFS model showed Erika merely as a strong tropical wave with no closed circulation. Image taken from our wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.
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WU Blog post by Bob Henson - cypresstx, 8/26/2015, 3:18 am
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