Re: Erika Analysis
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/27/2015, 8:11 pm
That is an interesting scenario. Discussions seem to be hinting at the possibility that Erika gets her act together in a hurry toward the end of the current forecast period. I have said here several times over the years that NHC's ongoing struggles with intensity forecasting make Florida residents vulnerable to a nightmare scenario in which folks go to sleep prepared for a Cat 1 and wake up with a Cat 4 on their doorstep. I think that is a very real concern, and something that someday will in fact happen. Then, watch NHC get buried by people screaming, "But you said it would only be a Category 1!" Ugh.

I do not think Erika will be the one to do it. Too many obstacles for her to withstand in the near-term.
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Erika Analysis - Jake, 8/26/2015, 11:26 am
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