Re: Fred is a rare storm, only the fourth to form east of 19W
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/30/2015, 7:55 am
I think the last two storms were difficult for the models to forecast due to the similarity in the eastern Caribbean. First off, Danny was simply unusual due to its small size and the models probably can't pick up on something like that very well due to how rare it is. But after Danny weakened, things seemed similar between the two storms.

One after the other, near the same place in the eastern Caribbean, and both weak, some of the models performed poorly. I don't think there is too much more than that. Most often storms can move westward if they are weaker. Some of the models didn't pick up on the hostile conditions well enough I suppose, which kept the storms weaker. So more westward. Some of the models simply made the mistake twice in a row, under similar conditions, which I guess should not be too surprising.

As for what specific variable(s) the models got wrong, I don't know. But rather than two very different instances why some models didn't do well, I think it is somewhat related. So I don't think it is a broader problem with some being wrong, just coincidentally similar conditions. Although some models did better on one than the other. Without really getting into it deeply, I'm not sure if some of the model error was because of bad timing on speed along a track it did pretty good on or if it was just way off on where it thought it would go. I didn't follow specific models very closely on the two storms so other than looking at the model error now, I don't know how each model really did when comparing how each model did for each storm and comparing the differences of the same model.
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Tropical Storm Fred has formed SE of Cape Verde Islands; hurricane watch & TS warning in effect - Chris in Tampa, 8/30/2015, 4:50 am
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