| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144747.shtml?5day?large#contents TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Satellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands has become better organized, and is now Tropical Depression Seven. The convection is not very deep at this time, but animation of visible images show a good circulation. In fact, earlier microwave data clearly depict a mid-level center associated with the developing depression. Based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, the initial intensity has been set at 30 kt. No ASCAT data were available at the time of this advisory. The environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. A moderately strong subtropical ridge is centered north of the depression. This pattern calls for a continuation of a general westward track for the next 3 days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken, and the cyclone will likely turn more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed. This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not acknowledge the existence of a cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 12.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.8N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 14.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 15.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 25.2W ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 25.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila NHC: http://hurricanes.gov/ Satellite: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL072015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=07L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 (link not yet active as of posting, from: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/) NOAA Floater (every 3 hours): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/07L_floater.html Models: http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=07&display=googlemap&latestrun=1 Recon, in the form of the Global Hawk UAS, may be going out to this within a few days: http://uas.noaa.gov/shout/dailysched.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php |