Re: GoM
Posted by
cypresstx on 9/13/2015, 11:51 am
Masters' blog mentioned it yesterday:
Gulf of Mexico disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche in association with a cold front that pushed south of Texas and has stalled over Mexico and its offshore waters. This disturbance is bringing heavy rains to the coast of Mexico, but none of our reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone development are predicting that a tropical depression will form in the Gulf over the next five days, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The Mexican Weather Service is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 4" may affect portions of Mexico from this disturbance.
Brownsville NWS mentions a low today:
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONCENTRATED OVER THE REGION.
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP RIGHT OVER
THE LOWER RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CONVECTION WILL TREND LESS INTO WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND DISTURBANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
every other source I looked for is towing the NHC line of ignoring anything close to the US that is not developing from a warm-core-originally system, but flagging systems with a "0" chance thousands of miles out in the Atlantic. I seriously don't understand them this year...
kudos to Brownsville to have the courage to at least mention it
a few circulations on "earth" http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-93.70,22.49,2837
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In this thread:
GoM -
Gianmarc,
9/13/2015, 10:42 am- one last hurrah ? - cypresstx, 9/15/2015, 7:19 am
- Now Invest 94L - Chris in Tampa, 9/13/2015, 1:33 pm
- Recon investigating tomorrow afternoon - Chris in Tampa, 9/13/2015, 1:16 pm
- Re: GoM - Chris in Tampa, 9/13/2015, 11:39 am
- Re: GoM - cypresstx, 9/13/2015, 11:51 am
- Re: GoM - Chris in Tampa, 9/13/2015, 12:12 pm
- Re: GoM - Gianmarc, 9/13/2015, 12:07 pm
- 1006 in BOC - cypresstx, 9/13/2015, 11:56 am
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