NWS Brownsville
Posted by cypresstx on 9/13/2015, 4:23 pm
from latest discussion

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BRO&issuedby=BRO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.long term /tuesday through sunday/...which ever entity forms or
exist over the southwest gulf of mexico/ a low pressure trough or
low end tropical cyclone/ at the beginning of the long term
period moisture will likely be in place or spreading over the
eastern half and possibly much of deep south texas.
models
continues to indicate an increase in moisture over the lower texas
coastal waters and the eastern coastal counties tuesday spreading
higher pwat air and increasing the depth of the moisture through
out the cwa into wednesday and thursday. low level southeasterly
flow becomes well established as surface high settles over the
southeastern states and the ne gulf. surface low pressure trough
extending north along the ne mexico coast from the low pressure
area or possible tc to act as a convergence line for the gulf
moisture. the moisture from these sw lows/low end tropical cyclone
have a tendency to spread outward from the center as they move
inland. latest gfs/nam and the medium range forecast /from the
national hurricane center/ all indicate this entity moving inland
over coastal mexico wednesday well south of the rgv. upper level
winds or shear values over the sw gulf do not favor rapid
development of this area of disturb weather.
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GoM - Gianmarc, 9/13/2015, 10:42 am
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