Re: this season sucks
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/16/2015, 7:46 am
I was going to try and cheer you up with a run from the CMC, but even it has nothing over Florida at the moment. Only all around.

The September 16th 0Z run:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015091600
Is that former Grace, becoming a hurricane, then being gobbled up by a hurricane 93L, followed by hurricane 93L possibly heading towards either being gobbled up by, or doing a Fujiwhara dance perhaps with, hurricane 95L? With a bonus tropical storm perhaps also forming from some of Grace's remnants and passing by the tip of Newfoundland?

If you go back and time on the runs, there is more craziness.

I need to pay attention to the Canadian more. It's buckets of fun.

Meanwhile, from models that are not on some kind of medication, there is nothing near term. GFS has various things in the really long term from run to run.

The September 16th 0Z run, out 384 hours:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015091600&fh=384
One run, as far as it goes out.

312 hours out on September 16th 6Z run, something coming in around Long Island:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015091606&fh=312

So, there's nothing reliable on the horizon. The CMC (Can't Model Crap) is up to its usual shenanigans and the GFS (Good For Short-term) is clueless long term.

---

And Fred was historic, it was the furthest east forming hurricane in the main development region in recorded history. The NHC couldn't even draw watches and warnings for Cape Verde because the software wouldn't do it. That's how rare he was!

And the Global Hawk got a cool view of him too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsSXaIs3rMk
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this season sucks - jimw, 9/15/2015, 4:29 pm
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