Re: Best season in memory...so far
Posted by Gianmarc on 9/22/2015, 2:44 pm
Yes, I remember that very well. It has stuck with me ever since because of the past few seasons in which we have seen the Atlantic basin choked off by wind shear. I think that theory connecting climate change with wind shear gains more credence with each passing season. I also remember vividly the conditions Andrew survived before he found a pocket near the Bahamas in which he finally could rev up.

It's important to guard against two dangerous assumptions: 1. That just because we appear to be in an inactive "cycle" does not at all mean we cannot again, some time in the years ahead, see an anomalous season like those we saw in 2004/2005, even if the culprit of that inactivity is linked to a permanent phenomenon such as climate change, and 2. That just because we may be seeing a long-term cycle of inactivity does not at all mean we can't see one system find a narrow opportunity to flourish and do damage as Andrew did.

Even Katrina survived a perilous journey across the Atlantic before revving up in the same general vicinity in which Andrew got himself together. These CV systems in particular fight hard. We have seen that even this year with systems that hung on a bit longer than expected despite very harsh conditions aloft.
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this season sucks - jimw, 9/15/2015, 4:29 pm
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