something to watch
Posted by cypresstx on 9/23/2015, 10:11 am
HGX discussion

snippet:

IN THE EXTENDED...THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS WE LOOK
INTO NEXT WEEK AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THIS POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT MODELS SEEM TO
WOBBLE THIS LOW N-NEWD AND THEN BACK TO THE SW NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONDUCIVE AT THIS TIME FOR TOO
MUCH ORGANIZATION...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND WARM GULF WATER
IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.


from 8 AM NHC:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Development, if any, should be slow to
occur as the system drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 20 percent

Forecaster Avila





the day-3 marine surface forecast shows a low in the east pacific moving east, not sure if that crosses over ???




then there's HFIP  http://www.hfip.org/products/

http://www.hfip.org/data/index.cgi?Path=probability&Year=2015&dsKey=aeperts&run_time=22+Sep+2015+-+18Z&domain=Atlantic

http://www.hfip.org/data/index.cgi?Path=probability&Year=2015&dsKey=4enscon&run_time=22+Sep+2015+-+18Z&domain=Atlantic






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still watching the gulf... - cypresstx, 9/17/2015, 7:30 am
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