Pouch 94L
Posted by
cypresstx on 9/25/2015, 10:29 pm
the "pouch people" have been keeping an eye on it (Yucatan) since the 24th
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2015/P45L.html
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2015-atlantic.html
their latest 00Z synopsis:
SYNOPSIS 2015092500
P45L (NHC: 0% 2-day / 20% 5-day) 16N, 84W 700 hPa
ECMWF: Tiny pouch in an area of unorganized OW gradually consolidates as it tracks northward along the east coast of Yucatan. OW increases throughout much of the five days, but only a little. Tracks NNE after 60 hours, eventually making a US landfall near Panama City as a relatively small, weak pouch. Meanwhile, the large upper-level low remains over the western Gulf near Texas.
GFS: Uncertain positions for this weak system for the first two days. Over the Yucatan, P45L intensifies, but on the next day, the center of P45L shifts to the north over the Gulf. OW peaks at 96 hours at only about 5x10-9 s-2 as P45L tracks quickly northward, making landfall near Dauphin Island, Alabama, and then weakening over land on Day 5. The 700-hPa signature of the upper-level low to the west continues to be smaller than in ECMWF.
UKMET:
NAVGEM:
HWRF-GEN:
ECMWF 0.0 3.9 track 120h GFS 0.0 3.3 track/per 120h UKMET NAVGEM HWGEN |
160
In this thread:
still watching the gulf... -
cypresstx,
9/17/2015, 7:30 am- 99L Spaghetti Models - Future Joaquin? - tvsteve, 9/26/2015, 4:35 pm
- Pouch 94L - cypresstx, 9/25/2015, 10:29 pm
- Invest 92E - cypresstx, 9/24/2015, 11:11 am
- Re: still watching the gulf... - freesong, 9/17/2015, 10:27 pm
- Re: still watching the gulf... - beachman80, 9/17/2015, 9:11 am
- Re: still watching the gulf... - Chris in Tampa, 9/17/2015, 8:12 am
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