Pouch 94L
Posted by cypresstx on 9/25/2015, 10:29 pm
the "pouch people" have been keeping an eye on it (Yucatan) since the 24th

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2015/P45L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2015-atlantic.html

their latest 00Z synopsis:

SYNOPSIS 2015092500

P45L   (NHC:  0% 2-day / 20% 5-day)
16N, 84W
700 hPa


ECMWF:  Tiny pouch in an area of unorganized OW gradually consolidates as it tracks northward along the east coast of Yucatan.  OW increases throughout much of the five days, but only a little.  Tracks NNE after 60 hours, eventually making a US landfall near Panama City as a relatively small, weak pouch.  Meanwhile, the large upper-level low remains over the western Gulf near Texas.

GFS:  Uncertain positions for this weak system for the first two days.  Over the Yucatan, P45L intensifies, but on the next day, the center of P45L shifts to the north over the Gulf.  OW peaks at 96 hours at only about 5x10-9 s-2 as P45L tracks quickly northward, making landfall near Dauphin Island, Alabama, and then weakening over land on Day 5.  The 700-hPa signature of the upper-level low to the west continues to be smaller than in ECMWF.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF    0.0    3.9 track  120h
GFS      0.0    3.3 track/per 120h
UKMET  
NAVGEM  
HWGEN
160
In this thread:
still watching the gulf... - cypresstx, 9/17/2015, 7:30 am
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