98L now Tropical Depression Eleven
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/27/2015, 11:54 pm
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025854.shtml?5day?large#contents
Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015
Late-afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that the
circulation of the low pressure area located midway between the
Bahamas and Bermuda has become well defined. Since the low has
already had persistent and organized deep convection, the system is
being declared a tropical depression. A 2312 UTC SSMI/S overpass
indicated that the center of the depression has become at least
partially exposed to the northwest of a large convective mass due to
moderate northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 30
kt, based on a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB. The depression
is expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly
winds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the
central Atlantic beginning on Monday. In fact, global models show
the shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone
either becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days. The
intensity forecast is below the multi-model consensus through the
forecast period, closest to the HWRF solution.
A low- to mid- level ridge north and northeast of the cyclone is
steering the lower half of the depression's circulation
northwestward while increasing northwesterly winds aloft are
opposing this motion. The net deep-layer mean flow is therefore
providing for only a slow northwestward motion of 315/02 kt, a
rather uncertain estimate considering the scatter of recent fixes.
This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of
days, resulting in a the cyclone's drifting west-northwestward or
northwestward. The low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to shift
eastward in 2-3 days as a trough reaches the eastern seaboard of the
United States, and the increasingly shallow system should turn
northwestward and north-northwestward at a faster forward speed if
it still exists. The track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF model solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 27.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 27.7N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 27.9N 69.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 70.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 28.8N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 31.0N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 68.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 68.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward drift is expected during the
next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
http://hurricanes.gov/ |
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