Re: I'm wondering
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/29/2015, 9:56 pm
This could be complex. Please disregard what I previously said about impacts. Things are very uncertain and some models are extremely bullish on development. Euro is still offshore as of writing this though.
Lots of rain seems likely:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&fh=240
But I am wondering about how large a system this could be later in the period:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=ir
I'm wondering how large it might be while still offshore. We could be talking about more than beach erosion. That is assuming it does pass near the coast or make a left turn into it.
I really wish real time data from the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale was still available from NOAA, such as the surge destructive potential. In 2014 NOAA gave that to a private company that charges you to see it. That was incredibly beneficial information with Sandy. Transferring it to a private company was ridiculous.
Cyclone phase analysis for 18Z run on Tuesday:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/15092918/10.html
From: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
Then there is the really bullish intensity estimates from the GFDL and HWRF. Now that Joaquin has strengthened quite a bit fairly quickly, you have to start paying a lot more attention to them. (At 8pm the best track information had it at 70mph.)
Wide view HWRF: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind
Closeup: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind
Wide view GFDL: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind
Closeup: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind
Shear is forecast to lessen further. The SHIPS output below is based on the track at 0Z:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=11&display=googlemap&latestrun=1&models=DSHP
(that link will display the latest track of the SHIPS model, the version that takes into account land interaction) At the moment later in the period that track is further away from the coast so it would take into account shear where the track is. Even if it got that right, if the storm is in a different place, shear would be different.
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOAQUIN AL112015 09/30/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 70 73 76 79 83 87 91 92 90 77
V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 70 73 76 79 83 87 91 92 90 77
V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 71 75 78 82 83 85 91 100 102 89 74
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 18 17 21 20 18 13 11 10 6 10 24 29 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 2 6 9 8 0 1 8 5 -1 5
SHEAR DIR 13 14 21 31 30 31 23 21 334 283 239 220 220
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.3 27.8 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 163 162 162 162 164 163 143 135 132
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 141 142 139 138 137 137 144 148 127 115 111
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.4 -49.5 -48.8 -49.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 63 65 66 67 65 66 59 50 37 37
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 23 25 27 28 30 31 35 38 41 33
850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 20 33 39 54 80 95 126 148 197 245 181
200 MB DIV 0 9 19 14 2 19 30 61 67 81 65 48 35
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 6 14 11 35 5 8
LAND (KM) 665 639 611 569 527 466 418 426 515 653 579 447 521
LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.7 25.4 27.4 30.5 33.0 34.6
LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.7 73.2 73.9 74.4 74.5 74.0 73.5 73.0 72.0 70.3
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 3 2 2 7 13 14 12 10
HEAT CONTENT 43 45 49 55 57 52 51 51 58 59 35 20 18
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 12. 15. 16. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 23. 27. 31. 32. 30. 17.
** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/2015 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Latest SHIPS output: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
About LGEM (LGE mod) intensity: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml |
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AquaRN,
9/28/2015, 11:09 pm Post A Reply
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