| HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS JOAQUIN STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 73.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island and Bimini A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Joaquin has been drifting southward during the past few hours, but a general motion toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) is expected through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and north is forecast Thursday night or Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday, and be near or over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to become a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Stewart |