| Track: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_w.php?stormid=CP072015 Now that's what I call a wacky track. It needs to be watched. The models don't have any recon data yet. The NOAA G-IV is actually going to head out to Hawaii to do some missions. The models are really a bunch of tangled spaghetti right now: http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=cp&year=2015&storm=07&display=googlemap&latestrun=1 Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07C/07C_floater.html Wider view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/cpac.html TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015 1100 PM HST FRI OCT 02 2015 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE PERSISTED AND CONSOLIDATED TO THE POINT THAT THE SYSTEM CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0530Z WERE 1.5/25 KT FROM PHFO/PGTW/KNES... AND GIVEN THAT A STRENGTHENING CURVED BAND IS IN THE PROCESS OF WRAPPING TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 30 KT. GIVEN RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THIS MARKS THE TWELFTH TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 2015 CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. THIS IS THE GREATEST NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES TO OCCUR IN THE BASIN ON RECORD...WHICH RELIABLY DATES BACK THROUGH THE SATELLITE ERA... SPANNING BACK TO LATE 1960/S. AS IS TYPICAL FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREAS EMERGING FROM A MONSOON TROUGH...THE INITIAL MOTION CONTAINS A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND IS 050/06KT. THE COMPLEX FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR A LOW EMERGING FROM A MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS BEST DESCRIBED AS AN S-TYPE TRACK. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST...THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THEN EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE STEERING CURRENTS EVOLVE...WITH THE CYCLONE INITIALLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...THUS IMPARTING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. A NEW AND VIGOROUS LOW ALOFT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE...AND TEMPORARILY WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS...BEFORE THE LOW ACTS TO LIFT THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE COMPLEX FORECAST TRACK...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFEX CONSENSUS...THUS HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF A VARIETY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...AND CONTAINS A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC WIND...RAIN OR SURF IMPACTS FROM SEVEN-C IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WITH THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BE SLOW-MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT SHEAR...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60 PER CENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE...BUT ANTICIPATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...IN LINE WITH THE IVCN CONSENSUS. THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE AS INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY THIS SYSTEM IN SUPPORT OF CPHC OPERATIONS...AND INITIAL FLIGHTS INTO THE SYSTEM ARE PLANNED FOR SUNDAY EVENING. THE G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL ALSO BE HEADING TO HAWAII ONCE AGAIN TO FLY SYNOPTIC MISSIONS...WITH THE INITIAL HIGH-ALTITUDE FLIGHT PLANNED FOR SUNDAY MORNING...IN ORDER FOR THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 13.4N 154.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 14.2N 154.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 14.8N 155.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 15.1N 156.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 15.6N 156.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 16.5N 155.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 17.0N 153.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 18.6N 152.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD Central Pacific Hurricane Center: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/ |