Hurricane warning issued in Bermuda
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/3/2015, 11:12 pm
Track continues to be closer to Bermuda:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025352.shtml?3day?large#contents

And also importantly, the wind field of hurricane force winds has greatly expanded. For the previous advisory it was 45 miles. Now it is 70 miles. So we are talking about a longer duration now too for Bermuda.

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html








HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 68.9W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 68.9 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected later tonight, with this motion
continuing through Sunday night.  On the forecast track, the center
of Joaquin will pass near Bermuda late Sunday or Sunday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).


The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday
afternoon.


RAINFALL:  Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda
by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall over Bermuda through Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the east coast of the United States through the
weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda tonight
and continue through Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Even though
Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United
States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves
will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and
dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven








HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015

While the cloud pattern has deteriorated a little this evening,
reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Joaquin is still a Category 4 hurricane.  The
aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 131 kt southeast of
the center along with a central pressure near 944 mb.  Surface wind
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer were as
high as 126 kt, but it is uncertain how reliable these are.  Based
mainly on the flight-level winds, the initial intensity is decreased
to 115 kt.  The aircraft also reports that the size of the 50 kt and
64 kt wind radii have expanded in the southeastern quadrant.

Joaquin has moved a little to the right for the past several hours
and the initial motion is now 050/17.
Water vapor imagery shows a
mid- to upper-level low near 34N 71W and a mid- to upper-level
ridge east of 60W between 25N and 40N.  Joaquin is expected to turn
north-northeastward between these features during the next 12 hours,
with this motion continuing through about 48 hours.  After that
time, the tropical cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward into
the westerlies and accelerate.  The forecast track, which has been
shifted about 30 n mi eastward from the previous track, lies near
the center of the tightly clustered track guidance models.


The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Joaquin should
weaken during the forecast period as it encounters episodes of
moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  However, it is likely to
be a Category 2 hurricane in 24-36 hours at the time of closest
approach to Bermuda.  Extratropical transition should begin around
72 hours and be complete by 96 hours, with the winds decreasing
below hurricane force during the transition.  The new intensity
forecast is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.

The combination of the shift in the forecast track and the expansion
of the hurricane-force winds requires a hurricane warning for
Bermuda at this time.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 28.0N  68.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 29.9N  67.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 32.3N  66.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 34.3N  65.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  06/0000Z 36.4N  62.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  07/0000Z 41.0N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  08/0000Z 45.5N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 50.5N  22.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
243
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Hurricane warning issued in Bermuda - Chris in Tampa, 10/3/2015, 11:12 pm
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