10pm CDT discussion on category five Patricia
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/22/2015, 10:43 pm
Message modified by board administrator on 10/22/2015, 10:45 pm
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/023844.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents
Track on interactive map: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/023844.shtml?gm_track#contents







HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming
warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C
cloud tops in the eyewall.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the
intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have
intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a
category 5 hurricane during that time.  This is a remarkable feat,
with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite
era.  The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing
southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday
afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall.  The latest forecast is close to the
previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.
After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high
terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains.

The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an
initial motion estimate of 330/9.  The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during
the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level
high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then
forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico.  The latest NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to
better reflect the latest consensus guidance.

Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area overnight or early Friday.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  145 KT 165 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake








HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 105.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Patricia
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 105.1 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast Friday afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area Friday afternoon or evening.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.  Patricia is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. While Patricia is expected to weaken some on Friday, it is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through
landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area Friday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach the warning areas overnight or early
Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area late Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
175
In this thread:
East Pacific Patricia: Now a category five hurricane - Chris in Tampa, 10/22/2015, 10:17 pm
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