Re: Patricia at 4am CDT on Friday: 200mph; 880mb; Strongest NHC has ever handled
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/23/2015, 5:23 am
Unfortunately this strengthened so fast before landfall. Historically so. Hopefully it stays along the path and impacts less people and people who hopefully prepared enough beforehand. (Meaning evacuated the area completely I assume, I don't know how you evacuate for a storm like this other than leave and go further inland where it has hopefully weakened a lot.)

If this were to veer a little more north and hit Puerto Vallarta more directly, it would catch a lot of people off guard. There is much less population south of there in towns I hope most people evacuated.

If something like this ever happened to any major population center, it would be staggering. Usually, you can at least evacuate and get out of the way from storms like this. But the worst thing imaginable is to be caught off guard by a storm like this, not because you didn't do what you were supposed to, but because it was just not expected.

It's just unbelievable to look at this storm's history:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/refresh/PATRICIA+shtml/
The NHC did keep hint though at strengthening more than anticipated, but this unfathomable.

4pm CDT Wednesday:

"However,
some of the models continue to forecast a stronger peak intensity,
and it is possible that Patricia could rapidly intensify into a
stronger system than currently forecast."

Peak was forecast to be 100mph at that point. I just can't fathom that it is double that right now.

Someone on another message board pointed out that we are at EF-5 territory:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Fujita_scale

Also, from the forecast advisory:

"MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 175 KT WITH GUSTS TO 215 KT."

Wind gusts are currently officially at about 247mph! And that is at the surface. Imagine the mountains as this storm gets further inland. Not just the rain but still extremely high winds.
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Patricia at 4am CDT on Friday: 200mph; 880mb; Strongest NHC has ever handled - Chris in Tampa, 10/23/2015, 4:57 am
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