Re: Strongest Eastern North Pacific hurricane ever recorded this late in their season
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 11/26/2015, 2:44 am
From earlier NHC discussion:

"There
have now been 9 major hurricanes over the eastern North Pacific
Ocean during the 2015 season, which is a record for that basin."


10 pm EST discussion:


HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
800 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015

The intensification of Sandra seems to have slowed during the past
few hours.  The cloud tops in the eyewall have continued to cool
with temperatures now colder than -80C.  However, as this has
occurred the eye has become less distinct.  Satellite intensity
estimates are 115 kt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and there is a
recent CIMSS ADT estimate of 110 kt.  A blend of these data is used
for the initial intensity of 105 kt.

The initial motion is now 320/7.  Sandra is moving around the
western end of a mid- to upper-level ridge over southern Mexico, and
during the next 96 hours it should move into southwesterly flow
between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the western United
States.  While the guidance is generally in good agreement with
this scenario,  there remains some spread between the slower and
farther west ECMWF and the faster and farther east GFS.  As seen in
the previous advisory, this is due to the GFS keeping Sandra a
stronger system than does the ECMWF.  The new track forecast is
more or less an update of the previous forecast, but remains slower
than the model consensus in deference to the ECMWF, whose weaker
forecast again looks more realistic at this time.  The new forecast
has the center of Sandra passing near the southern end of the Baja
California peninsula between 48-72 hours and subsequently moving
into mainland Mexico between 72-96 hours.

Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that,
Sandra is expected to encounter rapidly increasing southwesterly
vertical wind shear, which should cause rapid weakening as the
center approaches Baja California and mainland Mexico.  The new
intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus IVCN through 48
hours, and then it is a little stronger than the guidance at 72
hours.  After Sandra makes landfall in Mexico, it is forecast to
dissipate quickly over the mountains.

Although Sandra is forecast to weaken, it is still too soon to know
exactly how it will affect portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula or the west coast of mainland Mexico.  Watches will not
be required on this advisory.  However, interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of Sandra.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 13.6N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  26/1200Z 14.9N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  27/0000Z 16.7N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  27/1200Z 18.5N 110.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  28/0000Z 20.4N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  29/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  30/0000Z 28.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



NHC track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/024121.shtml?5day#contents



Recon starting Friday possibly:



NOUS42 KNHC 251618
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EST WED 25 NOVEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z NOVEMBER 2015
        TCPOD NUMBER.....15-183

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE SANDRA
      AT 27/1700Z NEAR 19.5N 110.7W

NOTE:  THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF






She's turning sooner to the right than forecast at the moment. If that were to continue, it might spend less time going through some of the most hostile conditions, making it to the coast sooner and father south.

But even so, it should weaken very considerably with all that shear:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Flooding and mud slides would likely be the biggest threat.
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Hurricane Sandra - Target, 11/25/2015, 7:08 am
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