WPC Met Watch
Posted by cypresstx on 8/5/2016, 10:49 am
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0525



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0525
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
920 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE/WEST-CENTRAL FL COAST...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 051320Z - 051750Z

summary...early morning convection continues to fire in response to a weak/persistent band of mid-level vorticity across the northeastern gulf of mx. deep tropical moisture remains over the region with pwats over 2.25" across much of the northern half of fl. very weak steering flows should allow for slow moving convection with cell mergers increasing the risk for flash flooding.

discussion...visible imagery this morning showed several convective complexes erupting along the northwest fl coast. the 12z sounding from tlh indicated deep tropical moisture in place with pwats nearing 2.50 inches. additionally...tall/skinny cape profiles were noted coupled with very weak tropospheric flow and freezing levels above 15 kft. all of these ingredients support heavy rainfall across the affected region. while most of the cb towers were located along the coast or just offshore...vad wind profiler data showed decent low-level westerly flow which should draw some of these storms inland. as of 13z...the profiler data indicated 10 to 15 knots of westerly flow in the 3000 to 6000 ft layer. there does not appear to be any notable inhibition in the rap objective analysis which is being verified by the free convection occurring over much of the northeastern gulf of mx.

as usual...the flash flood guidance values are rather high over the region which would make exceedance of these numbers difficult. however...any organized/slow-moving cells within this extremely high pwat/weak shear environment can produce heavy downpours capable of flash flooding.

there is a decent signal in the cams for organzed heavy rainfall over the region...particularly along the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. the 00z nssl-wrf confines the activity toward the south while the latest hrrr/hrrr-parallel seem to evenly distribute the convection along the coast.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

long loop



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NE Gulf - cypresstx, 8/5/2016, 6:45 am
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