| Forecast to move inland overnight tonight. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204220.shtml?5-daynl#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/05L_floater.html Looking rather good for such little time over water. TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...EARL RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 95.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Laguna Verde to Tecolutla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Tecolutla, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 95.0 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz later tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds have expanded and now extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Reports from the Meteorological Service of Mexico indicate that at least 7.63 inches (194 mm) of rainfall has occurred at Yamonho Chiapas and 5.64 inches (143 mm) has occurred at Boca del Cerro thus far. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |