global tropical hazards & benefits outlook
Posted by cypresstx on 8/20/2016, 5:54 am
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

the (large) graphic has the prior release as an outline in red:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full_update.png


Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion

Updated discussion
Last Updated: 08.19.16  Valid: 08.20.16 - 08.30.16

The strongest and largest area of anomalous convection remained over the western Pacific. That convection projects onto the MJO indices which indicate a signal over the western Pacific. This area is not propagating eastward, so the earlier MJO event has likely come to a close after settling over the western Pacific.

Tropical Storm Fiona developed over the Central Atlantic and is forecast to track northwestward toward Bermuda. Tropical Storm Kay developed near Baja California, and is expected to move northward then westward away from the coast. The western Pacific remained active with Tropical Storms Dianmu, Mindulle, and Lionrock developing during the last few days. Tropical Storms Lionrock and Mindulle are forecast to impact Japan, although uncertainty about track forecasts is high when tropical cyclones interact. Going forward, the National Hurricane Center has two areas of potential formation during the next 5 days. One area near 12N/30W has a 50% chance for developing into a tropical cyclone, while an area further east has only a 30% chance of developing. The area to the east is not indicated on CPC's map as 30% is a low threat of formation. Tropical cyclone formation odds remain enhanced over the western Pacific during the next 10 days. Tropical cyclone formation odds are slightly enhanced near the Lesser Antilles during days 5-7.

Odds of above average rains are enhanced over the western Pacific, including Japan, the Phillipines and the Northern Mariana Islands from Aug 20-23. Closer to the equator, below average rains are favored over the Maritime Continent. Below averages rains are favored over the eastern Pacific, in the wake of tropical storm Kay. Flow around a subtropical high is likely to provide copious moisture from Northern Mexico to the Tennessee Valley. Easterly waves moving over the Central Atlantic and the heightened potential for tropical cyclone formation raise the odds for above average precipitation across that region.

For days 5-11, enhanced rainfall is likely over the western Pacific from the Philippines northeastward, and over the central Pacific where a Kelvin wave is likely to influence the pattern. Below averaga rains are likely for Central America and over the equatorial West Pacific.
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Thoughts on the new Invest 99 ? - AquaRN, 8/18/2016, 8:22 pm
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