Re: 2am Tuesday: 99L up to 60% within 48 hours
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/23/2016, 10:10 am
The GFS and GFDL's behavior with this storm has been very odd. The HWRF likes to make things that have yet to develop into major hurricanes, but the GFDL and GFS can't even track this storm recently. The Euro and GFS are not on the same page and the GFDL and HWRF couldn't be more different either. The GFS has all sorts of things in the long range spinning off into the Atlantic, but can't handle 99L. It the dry air that bad that the GFS doesn't think it will develop?

I was just taking a look at the models. Of the ones available from the NHC, minus the GFS ensemble members that are available, the consensus of the released models at 8am EDT have this making landfall about 15 miles south of Jim. If it took that track, he wouldn't have to go out chasing. (Not that the track is anywhere close to being known yet, if it develops, but it's just odd that it happens to be near him at the moment)
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2am Tuesday: 99L up to 60% within 48 hours - Chris in Tampa, 8/23/2016, 4:09 am
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