Re: I Wonder...
Posted by CX on 8/25/2016, 1:42 pm
The low level structure of the wave is fine. The upper level environment has been extremely hostile. Remember a few days ago when the wave was trekking W/WNW with an anticyclone aloft? That anticyclone drifted SW into the central Caribbean and has been adding to the shear over 99L for 1-2 days now. That is part of the reason why the circulation was degloved near St. Croix yesterday morning. Further, it has been moving W-ward in tandem with the wave itself. Shear was forecast to wane greatly N of Haiti yesterday, but is now forecast N of NE Cuba.

99L will eventually maneuver out of this environment and into a far better one. The question is: what kind of damage has already been done? 850 and 700mb vort maxes are decently aligned, although the 850mb vort max is marginally weaker than earlier this morning. The 500mb maximum is still back over the DR - hence the shear. It needs breathing room from Hispaniola, lighter shear and a giant burst of sustained convection - one, ideally, not caused by dry air forcing. If it can manage that this evening while closing off the circulation, game on. If not, well, we'll see if it gets a shot near the Keys if it is able to avoid the S FLA coastline.
166
In this thread:
I Wonder... - CX, 8/25/2016, 11:22 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.