Re: my new video out on 99L
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/25/2016, 8:53 pm
Removing most of the GFS and Canadian ensemble members, here are the models from earlier, through 5 days when available:


http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=99&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1

I also didn't include the simple extrapolation line.

I'll post an image of the 8pm EDT early cycle and 2pm EDT late cycle models shortly.

I guess you are talking about the 5 day outlook:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

That is the potential formation area through 5 days. Several of those models that turn it have it stronger. (though some are weaker) I should have included the extrapolation line too. If weaker, it might trend more west. Lowering the chances of development, they may be leaning that way for now. While the formation area does look more west-northwestward, it is supposed to move that way for several days bit still. Closer to the end, then it starts a more northward movement in a lot of the models. Since that is several days out, and things are still unclear, they are probably being careful to not show anything too definitive. To cover most of the models, the formation area would have to be really huge.
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my new video out on 99L - jimw, 8/25/2016, 5:13 pm
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