Re: my new video out on 99L
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/25/2016, 9:27 pm
The 8pm EDT early cycle models and 2pm EDT late cycle models have been released in the NHC's suite of models:


http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=99&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1

They are actually more inline with the NHC's formation area. The NHC would have had many of the late cycle models by the time they put out the 8pm outlook probably.

In the image above the CEM2 is the Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 12 hours). The Canadian was east of most all the other models before, so it is interpolating a model that is based on some earlier thinking. So the Euro would be east of all these models:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&fh=120

And when you look at the Euro come to think of it, at 120 hours out, 5 days, west of Tampa, that is about on the edge of the NHC's 5 day formation area for 99L.

As for what Jim was talking about with the Euro. The Euro is released graphically every 12 hours. However, when there is a depression or higher specific track data, like the spaghetti lines above, are released. Those track lines, of the high resolution Euro, a control member and the 50 ensemble members, are only released for a depression or higher. That makes comparing models easier. You can see what the Euro is doing with an invest by looking at it, but as for the exact coordinates, however those are derived, that is not done until it is a depression or higher. Then HurricaneCity downloadsthe Euro track data for that specific storm and integrated it into the system with the models that come from the NHC. Then once more data is available from the Euro, and we can see how its forecast is doing, it can be eligible to appear in the best performing models map.
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my new video out on 99L - jimw, 8/25/2016, 5:13 pm
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