Call Me Crazy, But....
Posted by CX on 8/26/2016, 10:27 am
...we might have something here.

Take the recent blow-up on the RGB for instance. NHC had the position of the low around ~22/74.5 at 8am. If we assume this to be true, this blow-up is in line with it. Watch the loop a few times. I have a suspicion that the swirl from last night did not propagate W as much as was forecast and was actually sucked back under the W edge of the convection.

This High-Res RapidScan Visible suggests similar. Watch from start to finish. You can see the swirl before the sun goes down. When the sun comes up, the swirl is covered.

This is all in line with what the 1200z 850mb vort max is showing.



The 700mb is decently stacked...



...and there's a new 500mb vorticity developing in the vicinity.



Shear has fallen to ~15kts over the system and looks to be prime to fall some more as long as the anticyclone in the NW Carib does not continue Wward.



And hey, the wave has passed Hispaniola so inflow from the S is likely far less impeded. Call me crazy, but....
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Call Me Crazy, But.... - CX, 8/26/2016, 10:27 am
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