| Madeline advisory and track at Central Pacific Hurricane Center: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Madeline Recon into the storm at HurricaneCity: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=ep Second recon mission in transit from Honolulu. Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14E/14E_floater.html Wide view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/cpac.html Unlike many other storms around the island of Hawaii previously, this one is coming to it, regardless of the exact track. It might be offshore or it could yet be a direct hit. Either way they are on the stronger side of the storm and at higher elevations the wind will be a lot stronger. Even at lower elevations this is still likely to be something they have never experienced. Strong wind and heavy rain are a bad combination for Hawaii. I would imagine the damage could be quite extensive even if Madeline does weaken like the forecast indicates. HURRICANE MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016 500 PM HST TUE AUG 30 2016 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MADELINE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 150.3W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, and Lanai A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, which make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Madeline. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu, Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Madeline was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 150.3 West. Madeline is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue into the evening, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest tonight through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Madeline will pass dangerously close to Hawaii County Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Madeline is expected to be at hurricane strength when it passes near Hawaii County. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to develop over Hawaii County as early as late Wednesday and continue into early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Maui County, including the islands of Maui Molokai and Lanai, on Wednesday into early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Madeline are expected to build from east to west across the Hawaiian Islands later today and tonight, possibly becoming damaging along east facing shorelines of Hawaii County and eastern portions of the Island of Maui on Wednesday into Thursday. RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Madeline are expected to reach Hawaii County on Wednesday, and may impact other Hawaiian Islands later Wednesday through Thursday. Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, across the Big Island, especially over windward portions. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides. Madeline may produce up to 4 inches of rainfall across Maui County. STORM SURGE: Depending on the track of Madeline, the combination of storm surge and tides could cause normally dry areas near the coast to become flooded. The water could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground if peak surge were to coincide with high tide. The surge would be accompanied by large damaging surf and can vary over short distances. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Wroe HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016 500 PM HST TUE AUG 30 2016 Under the presence of continued vertical wind shear, the satellite presentation of Madeline has continued to gradually degrade today, as an eye is no longer present. While Dvorak final T numbers continue to drop, current intensity estimates range from 5.5/102 kt at HFO to 5.0/90 kt out of JTWC and SAB, and CIMSS ADT has fallen below 80 kt. Since Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported stronger than expected winds earlier in the day, the current intensity will be set at 95 kt for this advisory. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will fly another mission in Madeline this evening. The initial motion for this advisory remains due west at 270/09 kt. Madeline continues to move westward along the southern edge of a low to mid level ridge, while a shallow upper level trough continues to dig toward the hurricane from the northwest. The ridge will keep Madeline on a westward-moving track into the evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-southwest tonight and Wednesday as the mid level ridge strengthens to the north and northwest and the upper level trough imparts northwesterly winds in the high levels of the cyclone. This track will take the center of Madeline dangerously close to the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County) late Wednesday into Thursday, and a Hurricane Warning remains in place for the Big Island, given the very close approach of Madeline and uncertainty in the track forecast. On Friday Madeline is forecast to turn back toward the west as the upper level trough digs southward over Hawaii. The official forecast track has changed little from the prior advisory and is near TVCN, which lies in the middle of a rather tightly clustered reliable guidance envelope during the next three days. The guidance envelope spreads beyond day three, while the GFDL remains the northern outlier through the entire forecast duration. Madeline is expected to gradually weaken through the next four days as the upper level trough digs southward and continues to impart vertical wind shear. UW CIMSS estimates current vertical wind shear from the west-southwest at 14 kt, and SHIPS forecasts shear to gradually increase during the next 24 to 36 hours before relaxing on Friday. The official intensity forecast calls for gradual weakening during this time that follows the trends of SHIPS and IVCN, though at a slightly slower rate of weakening than the guidance through Friday. Although it will be weakening, Madeline is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near the Big Island of Hawaii late Wednesday into early Thursday. We would like to remind everyone that hazards associated with hurricanes can extend well away from the center, and you should not focus too closely on the exact forecast track, as small changes can lead to differences in impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 19.3N 150.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 19.1N 151.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 18.7N 153.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.3N 155.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 18.1N 157.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 18.2N 162.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 18.7N 168.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.0N 173.2W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe |