Re: Other than the CMC not much will be happening in the tropics
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/6/2016, 8:17 pm
The NHC likes the one behind that one for development, off the coast of Africa, which the CMC also develops. The NHC is not thinking westward movement though for now, WNW or NW instead. Of course the chances for 92L developing were as high as 60% well before it even came off Africa and that has yet to happen. (The 0% for it is now off the map.) For awhile the models really developed 92L, but that was a long time ago. Still something to keep an eye on though.
I'm finding watching Hermine interesting. No more advisories being written, but still kind of interesting.
Newton could be a flooding risk to U.S. on the Pacific side (track), from the 5pm discussion today (Tuesday):
"The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one,
and it indicates that Newton could reach southeastern Arizona
before weakening below tropical-storm strength.
Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend
well away from the center. These hazards will affect a large
portion of Baja California Sur, northwestern Mexico, and
southeastern Arizona during the next day or so. Moisture associated
with the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and
localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico
Wednesday and Thursday."
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean just
west of the coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms. A low pressure area is expected to form in
association with the wave several hundred miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the
system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Forecaster Brown"
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
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