Re: 93L
Posted by Jake on 9/11/2016, 10:55 am
In my opinion, the disturbance is under a more favorable environment than yesterday. I don't agree with nhc on 0% development should be bumped to 30-40%... although its in the proximity of an ULL which looks to be filling in this morning the overall upper pattern would support slow or modest increase under near 5mph shear and abundant deep layer moisture. Most important key to watch in this situation since we have the aforementioned parameters is convective persistence and strong 850mb-500mb vortex which is staked and embedded in the convection per CMISS near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Believe a surface circulation will develop by this evening or tomorrow.
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93L - canetrakker, 9/10/2016, 11:50 am
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