Julia Thoughts!!!
Posted by
Jake on 9/14/2016, 11:40 am
Re: 93L
Posted by Jake on 9/11/2016, 10:55 am
In my opinion, the disturbance is under a more favorable environment than yesterday. I don't agree with nhc on 0% development should be bumped to 30-40%... although its in the proximity of an ULL which looks to be filling in this morning the overall upper pattern would support slow or modest increase under near 5mph shear and abundant deep layer moisture. Most important key to watch in this situation since we have the aforementioned parameters is convective persistence and strong 850mb-500mb vortex which is stacked and embedded in the convection per CMISS near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Believe a surface circulation will develop by this evening or tomorrow.
Above was my post on 93L Sunday!!!
I'm not surprised of the eventual evolution to tropical cyclone, as I was the only one seeing this. I don't understand how the NHC calls for a 0% chance when clearly this was becoming better defined since it reached the Bahamas... better yet they had this at 10% probability Monday and was likely a TD Monday evening just east of West Palm with tropical storm winds in squalls N and E of the center... however, don't expect this to increase partially over land. |
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