Re: OK, we finally have 97L....
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/26/2016, 1:30 am
The models are extremely bullish on intensity, as they like to do for things that have yet to develop. But this thing is not gaining much latitude yet. Delayed development often means staying more west and that seems to be the case for now too:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time

The invest so far seems to be often on the southern edge of the models:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=97&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1

Until it starts to develop, I would think it is likely to be on the left side of the models, further west. A lot of times the eastern Carib is not too favorable. It could be different this time, but until it starts to come together, I'm not banking on any significant right turn and missing the U.S. long term. First up is the many islands in the Caribbean and it's even unclear what this will be for the Lesser Antilles.

The models seem to indicate that when significant development occurs, it makes a right. A rather hard right on some of them. A tropical wave is not going to do that, it's going to have to be something well organized and gaining strength in my opinion. And very often lately, over years, we have seen wave after wave often develop later than expected. We'll all be watching.
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OK, we finally have 97L.... - Beachlover, 9/25/2016, 2:24 am
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